relation: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/2231/
title: On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science
creator: Penner, Orion
creator: Pan, Raj K.
creator: Petersen, Alexander M.
creator: Kaski, Kimmo
creator: Fortunato, Santo
subject: H Social Sciences (General)
subject: HM Sociology
subject: QA Mathematics
subject: QC Physics
subject: Z665 Library Science. Information Science
description: Correctly assessing a scientist’s past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate’s future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist’s future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their ‘‘predictive power’’. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists’ career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions.
publisher: Nature Publishing Group
date: 2013-10-29
type: Article
type: PeerReviewed
format: application/pdf
language: en
identifier: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/2231/1/On%20the%20Predictability%20of%20Future%20Impact%20in%20Science_SciRep.pdf
identifier:   Penner, Orion and Pan, Raj K. and Petersen, Alexander M. and Kaski, Kimmo and Fortunato, Santo  On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science.  Scientific Reports, 3.  p. 3052.  ISSN 2045-2322      (2013)  
relation: http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/131029/srep03052/full/srep03052.html
relation: 10.1038/srep03052