eprintid: 2231
rev_number: 15
eprint_status: archive
userid: 27
dir: disk0/00/00/22/31
datestamp: 2014-07-02 10:54:06
lastmod: 2014-07-02 10:54:06
status_changed: 2014-07-02 10:54:06
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Penner, Orion
creators_name: Pan, Raj K.
creators_name: Petersen, Alexander M.
creators_name: Kaski, Kimmo
creators_name: Fortunato, Santo
creators_id: orion.penner@imtlucca.it
creators_id: 
creators_id: alexander.petersen@imtlucca.it
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
title: On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science
ispublished: pub
subjects: H1
subjects: HM
subjects: QA
subjects: QC
subjects: Z665
divisions: EIC
full_text_status: public
abstract: Correctly assessing a scientist’s past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate’s future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist’s future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their ‘‘predictive power’’. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists’ career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions.
date: 2013-10-29
date_type: published
publication: Scientific Reports
volume: 3
publisher: Nature Publishing Group
pagerange: 3052
id_number: 10.1038/srep03052
refereed: TRUE
issn: 2045-2322
official_url: http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/131029/srep03052/full/srep03052.html
citation:   Penner, Orion and Pan, Raj K. and Petersen, Alexander M. and Kaski, Kimmo and Fortunato, Santo  On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science.  Scientific Reports, 3.  p. 3052.  ISSN 2045-2322      (2013)  
document_url: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/2231/1/On%20the%20Predictability%20of%20Future%20Impact%20in%20Science_SciRep.pdf