?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F2682%2F&rft.title=Twitter-based+analysis+of+the+dynamics+of+collective+attention+to+political+parties&rft.creator=Eom%2C+Young-Ho&rft.creator=Puliga%2C+Michelangelo&rft.creator=Smailovi%C4%87%2C+Jasmina&rft.creator=Mozeti%C4%8D%2C+Igor&rft.creator=Caldarelli%2C+Guido&rft.subject=HA+Statistics&rft.subject=HM+Sociology&rft.subject=QC+Physics&rft.description=Large-scale+data+from+social+media+have+a+significant+potential+to+describe+complex+phenomena+in+real+world+and+to+anticipate+collective+behaviors+such+as+information+spreading+and+social+trends.+One+specific+case+of+study+is+represented+by+the+collective+attention+to+the+action+of+political+parties.+Not+surprisingly%2C+researchers+and+stakeholders+tried+to+correlate+parties'+presence+on+social+media+with+their+performances+in+elections.+Despite+the+many+efforts%2C+results+are+still+inconclusive+since+this+kind+of+data+is+often+very+noisy+and+significant+signals+could+be+covered+by+(largely+unknown)+statistical+fluctuations.%0D%0AIn+this+paper+we+consider+the+number+of+tweets+(tweet+volume)+of+a+party+as+a+proxy+of+collective+attention+to+the+party%2C+we+identify+the+dynamics+of+the+volume%2C+and+show+that+this+quantity+has+some+information+on+the+elections+outcome.+We+find+that+the+distribution+of+the+tweet+volume+for+each+party+follows+a+log-normal+distribution+with+a+positive+autocorrelation+over+short+terms.+Furthermore%2C+by+measuring+the+ratio+of+two+consecutive+daily+tweet+volumes%2C+we+find+that+the+evolution+of+the+daily+volume+of+a+party+can+be+described+by+means+of+a+geometric+Brownian+motion.+Finally%2C+we+determine+the+optimal+period+of+averaging+tweet+volume+for+reducing+fluctuations+and+extracting+short-term+tendencies.+We+conclude+that+the+tweet+volume+is+a+good+indicator+of+parties'+success+in+the+elections+when+considered+over+an+optimal+time+window.+Our+study+identifies+the+statistical+nature+of+collective+attention+to+political+issues+and+sheds+light+on+how+to+model+the+dynamics+of+collective+attention+in+social+media.+&rft.publisher=ArXiv&rft.date=2015-04&rft.type=Working+Paper&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.identifier=++Eom%2C+Young-Ho+and+Puliga%2C+Michelangelo+and+Smailovi%C4%87%2C+Jasmina+and+Mozeti%C4%8D%2C+Igor+and+Caldarelli%2C+Guido++Twitter-based+analysis+of+the+dynamics+of+collective+attention+to+political+parties.++Working+Paper+++ArXiv+++++++(Submitted)+++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Farxiv.org%2Fabs%2F1504.06861v1