TY  - JOUR
VL  - 3
ID  - eprints2819
A1  - Squartini, Tiziano
A1  - Lelyveld, Iman van
A1  - Garlaschelli, Diego
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
SN  - 2045-2322
N2  - The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of ?systemic? risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998?2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear ? but unpredictable ? signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.
TI  - Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks
AV  - public
KW  - Applied physics
KW  -  Complex networks
KW  -  Information theory and computation
KW  -  Statistical physics
Y1  - 2013///
UR  - http://www.nature.com/articles/srep03357
JF  - Scientific Reports
ER  -