TY  - CONF
M2  - Kyoto
ID  - eprints2822
TI  - Economic Networks In and Out of Equilibrium
AV  - public
N2  - Economic and financial networks play a crucial role in various important processes, including economic integration, globalization, and financial crises. Of particular interest is understanding whether the temporal evolution of a real economic network is in a (quasi-)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth structural changes rather than abrupt transitions. Smooth changes in quasi-equilibrium networks can be generally controlled for, and largely predicted, while this is generally not possible for abrupt transitions in non-stationary networks. Here we study whether real economic networks are in or out of equilibrium by checking their consistency with quasi-equilibrium maximum-entropy ensembles of graphs. As illustrative examples, we consider the International Trade Network (ITN) and the Dutch Interbank Network (DIN). We show that, despite the globalization process, the ITN is an almost perfect example of quasi-equilibrium network, while the DIN is clearly an out-of-equilibrium network undergoing major structural changes and displaying non-stationary dynamics. Among the out-of-equilibrium properties of the DIN, we find striking early-warning signals of the interbank crisis of 2008.
KW  - Economic cycles
KW  -  Financial management
KW  -  Globalisation
KW  -  Maximum entropy methods
KW  -  International Trade Network
KW  -  Early-warning signals
UR  - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=6727239
PB  - IEEE
EP  - 537
A1  - Squartini, Tiziano
A1  - Garlaschelli, Diego
T2  - International Conference on Signal-Image Technology Internet-Based Systems (SITIS), 2013
Y1  - 2013/12//
SP  - 530
ER  -