eprintid: 3489
rev_number: 8
eprint_status: archive
userid: 6
dir: disk0/00/00/34/89
datestamp: 2016-05-23 09:52:51
lastmod: 2016-05-23 09:52:51
status_changed: 2016-05-23 09:52:51
type: conference_item
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Coletto, Mauro
creators_name: Lucchese, Claudio
creators_name: Orlando, Salvatore
creators_name: Perego, Raffaele
creators_id: mauro.coletto@imtlucca.it
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
title: Electoral predictions with Twitter: a machine-learning approach
ispublished: pub
subjects: QA75
divisions: CSA
full_text_status: public
pres_type: paper
note: Published in "Proceedings of the 6th Italian Information Retrieval Workshop"
abstract: Several studies have shown how to approximately predict public opinion,
such as in political elections, by analyzing user activities in blogging platforms
and on-line social networks. The task is challenging for several reasons.
Sample bias and automatic understanding of textual content are two of several
non trivial issues.
In this work we study how Twitter can provide some interesting insights concerning
the primary elections of an Italian political party. State-of-the-art approaches
rely on indicators based on tweet and user volumes, often including sentiment
analysis. We investigate how to exploit and improve those indicators in order to
reduce the bias of the Twitter users sample. We propose novel indicators and a
novel content-based method. Furthermore, we study how a machine learning approach
can learn correction factors for those indicators. Experimental results on
Twitter data support the validity of the proposed methods and their improvement
over the state of the art.
date: 2015
date_type: published
event_title: 6th Italian Information Retrieval Workshop
event_location: Cagliari, Italy
event_dates: 25-26 May 2015
event_type: workshop
refereed: TRUE
book_title: Proceedings of the 6th Italian Information Retrieval Workshop
official_url: http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1404/paper_19.pdf
citation:   Coletto, Mauro and Lucchese, Claudio and Orlando, Salvatore and Perego, Raffaele  Electoral predictions with Twitter: a machine-learning approach.  In: 6th Italian Information Retrieval Workshop, 25-26 May 2015, Cagliari, Italy         (2015)  
document_url: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/3489/1/paper_19.pdf