eprintid: 3585
rev_number: 9
eprint_status: archive
userid: 69
dir: disk0/00/00/35/85
datestamp: 2016-10-10 15:59:21
lastmod: 2016-10-10 15:59:21
status_changed: 2016-10-10 15:59:21
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Saracco, Fabio
creators_name: Di Clemente, Riccardo
creators_name: Gabrielli, Andrea
creators_name: Squartini, Tiziano
creators_id: fabio.saracco@imtlucca.it
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
creators_id: tiziano.squartini@imtlucca.it
title: Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade
ispublished: pub
subjects: H1
subjects: HC
divisions: EIC
full_text_status: public
abstract: Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of network theory to shed light on the response of world trade to the financial crisis of 2007 and the economic recession of 2008–2009. We have explored the evolution of the bipartite World Trade Web (WTW) across the years 1995–2010, monitoring the behavior of the system both before and after 2007. Our analysis shows early structural changes in the WTW topology: since 2003, the WTW becomes increasingly compatible with the picture of a network where correlations between countries and products are progressively lost. Moreover, the WTW structural modification can be considered as concluded in 2010, after a seemingly stationary phase of three years. We have also refined our analysis by considering specific subsets of countries and products: the most statistically significant early-warning signals are provided by the most volatile macrosectors, especially when measured on developing countries, suggesting the emerging economies as being the most sensitive ones to the global economic cycles.
date: 2016
date_type: published
publication: Scientific Reports
volume: 6
publisher: Nature Publishing Group
pagerange: 30286
id_number: doi:10.1038/srep30286
refereed: TRUE
issn: 2045-2322
official_url: http://doi.org/10.1038/srep30286
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projects: EU project GROWTHCOM (611272)
projects: Italian PNR project CRISIS-Lab
projects: EU project SIMPOL (grant num. 610704)
citation:   Saracco, Fabio and Di Clemente, Riccardo and Gabrielli, Andrea and Squartini, Tiziano  Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade.  Scientific Reports, 6.  p. 30286.  ISSN 2045-2322      (2016)  
document_url: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/3585/1/srep30286.pdf