TY  - RPRT
N2  - In this article, we assess, through an empirical investigation based on Italian data, how
uncertainty regarding future mortality may affect public pension expenditure. Based
on a representative sample of Italian pensioners from 1985 to 2011, we find a consistent
underestimation of improvements seen in mortality and life expectancy when forecasts
are based on expectations. The pension expenditure estimated using realized mortality
rates is shown to be consistently higher than that obtained by using average forecasted
scenarios, produced with well-known stochastic mortality models. The paper highlights
the importance of considering the uncertainty regarding future pension benfits, i.e. of
evaluating and managing the longevity risk in public pension plans.
M1  - imt_eic_working_paper
SN  - 2279-6894
PB  - IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
A1  - Frassi, Benedetta
A1  - Pammolli, Fabio
A1  - Regis, Luca
UR  - http://eprints.imtlucca.it/3628/
Y1  - 2017/01//
KW  - Keywords: longevity risk
KW  -  mortality model
KW  -  pension
KW  -  retirement.   -  
JEL Classification: C15
KW  -  C32
KW  -  J11
KW  -  J26
TI  - The potential costs of Longevity Risk on Public Pensions. Evidence from Italian data
AV  - public
EP  - 21
ID  - eprints3628
ER  -