eprintid: 3628
rev_number: 10
eprint_status: archive
userid: 6
dir: disk0/00/00/36/28
datestamp: 2017-01-10 15:51:43
lastmod: 2017-01-10 15:51:43
status_changed: 2017-01-10 15:51:43
type: monograph
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Frassi, Benedetta
creators_name: Pammolli, Fabio
creators_name: Regis, Luca
creators_id: benedetta.frassi@imtlucca.it
creators_id: 
creators_id: 
title: The potential costs of Longevity Risk on Public Pensions. Evidence from Italian data
ispublished: pub
subjects: DG
subjects: HB
divisions: EIC
full_text_status: public
monograph_type: imt_eic_working_paper
keywords: Keywords: longevity risk, mortality model, pension, retirement.   -  
JEL Classification: C15, C32, J11, J26
abstract: In this article, we assess, through an empirical investigation based on Italian data, how
uncertainty regarding future mortality may affect public pension expenditure. Based
on a representative sample of Italian pensioners from 1985 to 2011, we find a consistent
underestimation of improvements seen in mortality and life expectancy when forecasts
are based on expectations. The pension expenditure estimated using realized mortality
rates is shown to be consistently higher than that obtained by using average forecasted
scenarios, produced with well-known stochastic mortality models. The paper highlights
the importance of considering the uncertainty regarding future pension benfits, i.e. of
evaluating and managing the longevity risk in public pension plans.
date: 2017-01
date_type: published
number: 1
publisher: IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
pages: 21
institution: IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca
issn: 2279-6894
citation:   Frassi, Benedetta and Pammolli, Fabio and Regis, Luca  The potential costs of Longevity Risk on Public Pensions. Evidence from Italian data.  EIC working paper series  #1/2017    IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca    ISSN 2279-6894.      
document_url: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/3628/1/EIC_WP_1_2017.pdf