?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=arXiv%3A1712.05959&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F3995%2F&rft.title=Ultrametricity+increases+the+predictability+of+cultural+dynamics&rft.creator=Babeanu%2C+Alexandru-Ionut&rft.creator=van+de+Vis%2C+Jorinde&rft.creator=Garlaschelli%2C+Diego&rft.subject=H+Social+Sciences+(General)&rft.subject=QC+Physics&rft.description=A+quantitative+understanding+of+societies+requires+useful+combinations+of+empirical+data+and+mathematical+models.+Models+of+cultural+dynamics+aim+at+explaining+the+emergence+of+culturally+homogeneous+groups+through+social+influence.+Traditionally%2C+the+initial+cultural+traits+of+individuals+are+chosen+uniformly+at+random%2C+the+emphasis+being+on+characterizing+the+model+outcomes+that+are+independent+of+these+(%60annealed%26%2339%3B)+initial+conditions.+Here%2C+motivated+by+an+increasing+interest+in+forecasting+social+behavior+in+the+real+world%2C+we+reverse+the+point+of+view+and+focus+on+the+effect+of+specific+(%60quenched%26%2339%3B)+initial+conditions%2C+including+those+obtained+from+real+data%2C+on+the+final+cultural+state.+We+study+the+predictability%2C+rigorously+defined+in+an+information-theoretic+sense%2C+of+the+%5Cemphsocial+content+of+the+final+cultural+groups+(i.e.+who+ends+up+in+which+group)+from+the+knowledge+of+the+initial+cultural+traits.+We+find+that%2C+as+compared+to+random+and+shuffled+initial+conditions%2C+the+hierarchical+ultrametric-like+organization+of+empirical+cultural+states+significantly+increases+the+predictability+of+the+final+social+content+by+largely+confining+cultural+convergence+within+the+lower+levels+of+the+hierarchy.+Moreover%2C+predictability+correlates+with+the+compatibility+of+short-term+social+coordination+and+long-term+cultural+diversity%2C+a+property+that+has+been+recently+found+to+be+strong+and+robust+in+empirical+data.+We+also+introduce+a+null+model+generating+initial+conditions+that+retain+the+ultrametric+representation+of+real+data.+Using+this+ultrametric+model%2C+predictability+is+highly+enhanced+with+respect+to+the+random+and+shuffled+cases%2C+confirming+the+usefulness+of+the+empirical+hierarchical+organization+of+culture+for+forecasting+the+outcome+of+social+influence+models.&rft.publisher=arXiv&rft.date=2018&rft.type=Working+Paper&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by_nc&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F3995%2F1%2F1712.05959.pdf&rft.identifier=++Babeanu%2C+Alexandru-Ionut+and+van+de+Vis%2C+Jorinde+and+Garlaschelli%2C+Diego++Ultrametricity+increases+the+predictability+of+cultural+dynamics.++Working+Paper+++arXiv+++++++(Submitted)+++&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Farxiv.org%2Fabs%2F1712.05959&rft.relation=arXiv%3A1712.05959