?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F4077%2F&rft.title=Machine+Learning+for+Zombie+Hunting.%0D%0AFirms%E2%80%99+Failures+and+Financial+Constraints.&rft.creator=Bargagli-Stoffi%2C+Falco+J.&rft.creator=Riccaboni%2C+Massimo&rft.creator=Rungi%2C+Armando&rft.subject=HA+Statistics&rft.subject=HG+Finance&rft.description=In+this+contribution%2C+we+exploit+machine+learning+techniques+to+predict+the+risk+of+failure+of+firms.%0D%0AThen%2C+we+propose+an+empirical+definition+of+zombies+as+firms+that+persist+in+a+status+of+high%0D%0Arisk%2C+beyond+the+highest+decile%2C+after+which+we+observe+that+the+chances+to+transit+to+lower+risk%0D%0Aare+minimal.+We+implement+a+Bayesian+Additive+Regression+Tree+with+Missing+Incorporated+in%0D%0AAttributes+(BART-MIA)%2C+which+is+specifically+useful+in+our+setting+as+we+provide+evidence+that%0D%0Apatterns+of+undisclosed+accounts+correlate+with+firms%E2%80%99+failures.+After+training+our+algorithm%0D%0Aon+304%2C906+firms+active+in+Italy+in+the+period+2008-2017%2C+we+show+how+it+outperforms+proxy%0D%0Amodels+like+the+Z-scores+and+the+Distance-to-Default%2C+traditional+econometric+methods%2C+and%0D%0Aother+widely+used+machine+learning+techniques.+We+document+that+zombies+are+on+average%0D%0A21%25+less+productive%2C+76%25+smaller%2C+and+they+increased+in+times+of+financial+crisis.+In+general%2C%0D%0Awe+argue+that+our+application+helps+in+the+design+of+evidence-based+policies+in+the+presence+of%0D%0Amarket+failures%2C+for+example+optimal+bankruptcy+laws.+We+believe+our+framework+can+help+to%0D%0Ainform+the+design+of+support+programs+for+highly+distressed+firms+after+the+recent+pandemic%0D%0Acrisis.&rft.date=2020-06&rft.type=Working+Paper&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by_nc&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F4077%2F2%2FFile%2520per%2520upload.pdf&rft.identifier=++Bargagli-Stoffi%2C+Falco+J.+and+Riccaboni%2C+Massimo+and+Rungi%2C+Armando++Machine+Learning+for+Zombie+Hunting.+Firms%E2%80%99+Failures+and+Financial+Constraints.++EIC+working+paper+series++%231%2F2020%2F2020+++++ISSN+2279-6894.++++++