?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F80%2F&rft.title=A+Statistical+Model+of+Abstention+under+Compulsory+Voting&rft.creator=Katz%2C+Gabriel&rft.subject=HA+Statistics&rft.subject=JF+Political+institutions+(General)&rft.description=Invalid+voting+and+electoral+absenteeism+are+two+important+sources+of+abstention+in+compulsory+voting+systems.+Previous+studies+in+this+area+have+not+considered+the+correlation+between+both+variables+and+ignored+the+compositional+nature+of+the+data%2C+potentially+leading+to+unfeasible+results+and+discarding+helpful+information+from+an+inferential+standpoint.+In+order+to+overcome+these+problems%2C+this+paper+develops+a+statistical+model+that+accounts+for+the+compositional+and+hierarchical+structure+of+the+data+and+addresses+robustness+concerns+raised+by+the+use+of+small+samples+that+are+typical+in+the+literature.+The+model+is+applied+to+analyze+invalid+voting+and+electoral+absenteeism+in+Brazilian+legislative+elections+between+1945+and+2006+via+MCMC+simulations.+The+results+show+considerable+differences+in+the+determinants+of+both+forms+of+non-voting%3B+while+invalid+voting+was+strongly+positively+related+both+to+political+protest+and+to+the+existence+of+important+informational+barriers+to+voting%2C+the+influence+of+these+variables+on+absenteeism+is+less+evident.+Comparisons+based+on+posterior+simulations+indicate+that+the+model+developed+in+this+paper+fits+the+dataset+better+than+several+alternative+modeling+approaches+and+leads+to+different+substantive+conclusions+regarding+the+effect+of+different+predictors+on+the+both+sources+of+abstention.+&rft.date=2011&rft.type=Working+Paper&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.imtlucca.it%2F80%2F1%2FAbstention_Under_Compulsory_Voting.pdf&rft.identifier=++Katz%2C+Gabriel++A+Statistical+Model+of+Abstention+under+Compulsory+Voting.++Working+Paper++%23+%2F2011++++++++(Submitted)+++