IMT Institutional Repository: No conditions. Results ordered -Date Deposited. 2024-03-19T01:21:41ZEPrintshttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/images/logowhite.pnghttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/2011-02-23T08:38:27Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/91This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/912011-02-23T08:38:27ZPolicy-based abstention in Brazil’s 2002 ElectionThis paper implements a unified model of individual abstention and vote choice to analyze
policy-based alienation and indifference in Brazil’s 2002 presidential election. The
results indicate that both alienation and indifference depressed turnout, with indifference
contributing slightly more to voter abstention. Also, the determinants of alienation and
indifference differed considerably, the former being determined by structural factors such
as voters’ information and perceived efficacy levels, while the latter was related to shortterm
aspects such as parties’ mobilization efforts. More importantly, evidence shows
that while alienation and indifference were strongly influenced by attitudinal and protest
variables, they were also affected by citizens’ evaluation of candidates’ ideological locations.
The main conclusion is that abstention in Brazil’s 2002 election had a policy-driven
component and that spatial considerations played a substantive role in citizens’ electoral
behavior, a fact that has been overlooked in previous research on the determinants of
abstention in Latin America.Gabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.it2011-02-22T16:11:10Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/90This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/902011-02-22T16:11:10ZAssessing the Impact of E-Voting Technologies on Electoral Outcomes: an Analysis of Buenos Aires’ 2005 Congressional ElectionUsing data from an e-voting experiment conducted in the 2005
Congressional Election in Argentina, we estimate the effect of different e-voting
technologies on the likelihood that citizens cast their vote for different parties for
the National Congress and the Legislature of Buenos Aires. Our results indicate
that voters are extremely receptive to the information cues provided by the
different voting technologies and associated ballot designs, and that particular
voting devices have a significant impact on voter choice, systematically favouring
some parties to the detriment of others. We conclude that the choice of alternative
electronic voting devices might have considerable effect on electoral outcomes in
multi-party electoral systems.Gabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.itR. Michael AlvarezErnesto CalvoMarcelo EscolarJulia Pomares2011-02-22T15:57:22Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/89This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/892011-02-22T15:57:22ZReassessing the Link between Voter Heterogeneity and Political
Accountability: A Latent Class Regression Model of Economic
VotingWhile recent research has underscored the conditioning effect of individual characteristics on economic voting behavior, most empirical studies have failed to explicitly incorporate observed heterogeneity into statistical analyses linking citizens' economic evaluations to electoral choices. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we propose a latent
class regression model to jointly analyze the determinants and influence of economic
voting in Presidential and Congressional elections. Our modeling approach allows us to
better describe the effects of individual covariates on economic voting and to test hypotheses on the existence of heterogeneous types of voters, providing an empirical basis
for assessing the relative validity of alternative explanations proposed in the literature.
Using survey data from the 2004 U.S. Presidential, Senate and House elections, we
and that voters with college education and those more interested in political campaigns
based their vote on factors other than their economic perceptions. In contrast, less educated and interested respondents assigned considerable weight to economic assessments,
with sociotropic jugdgments strongly in
uencing their vote in the Presidential election
and personal financial considerations affecting their vote in House elections. We conclude that the main distinction in the 2004 election was not between `sociotropic' and
`pocketbook' voters, but rather between `economic' and `non-economic' voters.Jonathan N. KatzGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.it2011-02-22T15:56:58Z2012-07-06T13:33:49Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/87This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/872011-02-22T15:56:58ZModeling Electoral Coordination: Parties and Legislative Lists in UruguayDuring each electoral period, the strategic interaction between voters and political elites determines the number of viable candidates in a district. In this paper, we implement a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression model to explain electoral coordination at the district level in Uruguay as a function of district magnitude, previous electoral outcomes and electoral regime. Elections in this country are particularly useful to test for institutional effects on the coordination process due to the large variations in district magnitude, to the simultaneity of presidential and legislative races held under different rules, and to the reforms implemented during the period under consideration. We find that district magnitude and electoral history heuristics have substantial effects on the number of competing and voted-for parties and lists. Our modeling approach uncovers important interaction-effects between the demand and supply side of the political market that were often overlooked in previous research.Ines LevinGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.it2011-02-22T15:56:07Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/86This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/862011-02-22T15:56:07ZVoting in the Bicameral Congress: Large Majorities as a Signal of QualityWe estimate a model of voting in Congress that allows for dispersed information
about the quality of proposals in an equilibrium context. The results highlight the
effects of bicameralism on policy outcomes. In equilibrium, the Senate imposes an
endogenous supermajority rule on members of the House. We estimate this super-
majority rule to be about four-fifths on average across policy areas. Moreover, our
results indicate that the value of the information dispersed among legislators is significant, and that in equilibrium a large fraction of House members (40-50 %) vote in
accordance with their private information. Taken together, our results imply a highly
conservative Senate, in the sense that proposals are enacted into law only when it is
extremely likely that their quality is high.Matias IaryczowerGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.itSebastian Saiegh2011-02-22T15:54:52Z2014-01-24T14:19:21Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/80This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/802011-02-22T15:54:52ZA Statistical Model of Abstention under Compulsory VotingInvalid voting and electoral absenteeism are two important sources of abstention in compulsory voting systems. Previous studies in this area have not considered the correlation between both variables and ignored the compositional nature of the data, potentially leading to unfeasible results and discarding helpful information from an inferential standpoint. In order to overcome these problems, this paper develops a statistical model that accounts for the compositional and hierarchical structure of the data and addresses robustness concerns raised by the use of small samples that are typical in the literature. The model is applied to analyze invalid voting and electoral absenteeism in Brazilian legislative elections between 1945 and 2006 via MCMC simulations. The results show considerable differences in the determinants of both forms of non-voting; while invalid voting was strongly positively related both to political protest and to the existence of important informational barriers to voting, the influence of these variables on absenteeism is less evident. Comparisons based on posterior simulations indicate that the model developed in this paper fits the dataset better than several alternative modeling approaches and leads to different substantive conclusions regarding the effect of different predictors on the both sources of abstention. Gabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.it2011-02-22T15:54:05Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/85This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/852011-02-22T15:54:05ZAssessing Voters’ Attitudes towards Electronic Voting in Latin America: Evidence from Colombia’s 2007 E-Voting PilotElectronic voting could increase citizens’ electoral participation and trust in countries characterized by fragile democratic institutions and public discredit of the political system such as those in Latin America. This paper examines attitudes towards e-voting among participants in a large scale pilot project conducted in Colombia in 2007, focusing on the perceived reliability and usability of different automated voting technologies. Using a multivariate probit model, we determine the effect of socio-demographic, geographic and technical factors on users’ evaluations of electronic voting vis a vis the traditional paper ballot system. Our results show that users find e-voting not only easier than the current voting system, but also substantially more reliable. While voters’ opinions on usability are driven by technical issues, their trust in the new technologies is strongly affected by individual characteristics. We conclude that e-voting entails a promising opportunity to empower voters and increase confidence in elections in Colombia. R. Michael AlvarezGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.itRicardo LlamosaHugo E. Martinez2011-02-22T15:52:33Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/84This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/842011-02-22T15:52:33ZStructural cleavages, electoral competition and partisan divide: A Bayesian multinomial probit analysis of Chile's 2005 electionThe transformations in Chile's party structure since 1989 have led several authors to examine the main cleavages shaping partisan divisions and the impact of different factors on citizens' party preferences. Previous studies, however, failed to analyze the effect of these variables on actual vote choice and neglected the influence of election-specific factors. In order to address these issues, we implement a Bayesian multinomial probit model to analyze Chile's 2005 election. We show that, while both socio-demographic variables and attitudes towards democracy affected voter behavior, the latter were the main determinants of the choice between Chile's two main political coalitions. In addition, we find that the presence of a second conservative candidate, together with voters' strategic considerations, significantly affected candidate choice. These results cannot be accounted for by analyses focused on citizens' party identification or by methodologies that ignore the effect of substitution patterns between candidates on voters' electoral behavior.R. Michael AlvarezGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.it2011-02-22T15:50:30Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/83This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/832011-02-22T15:50:30ZCorrecting for Survey Misreports Using Auxiliary Information with an Application to Estimating TurnoutMisreporting is a problem that plagues researchers who use survey data. In this article, we develop a parametric model that corrects for misclassified binary responses using information on the misreporting patterns obtained from auxiliary data sources. The model is implemented within the Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and can be easily extended to address other problems exhibited by survey data, such as missing response and/or covariate values. While the model is fully general, we illustrate its application in the context of estimating models of turnout using data from the American National Elections Studies.Jonathan N. KatzGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.it2011-02-22T14:56:25Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/82This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/822011-02-22T14:56:25ZAssessing the Impact of Alternative Voting Technologies on Multi-Party Elections: Design Features, Heuristic Processing and Voter ChoiceThis paper analyzes the influence of alternative voting technologies on electoral outcomes in multi-party systems. Using data from a field experiment conducted during the 2005 legislative election in Argentina, we examine the role of information effects associated with alternative voting devices on the support for the competing parties. We find that differences in the type of information displayed and how it was presented across devices favored some parties to the detriment of others. The impact of voting technologies was found to be larger than in two-party systems, and could lead to changes in election results. We conclude that authorities in countries moving to adopt new voting systems should carefully take the potential partisan advantages induced by different technologies into account when evaluating their implementation.Gabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.itR. Michael AlvarezErnesto CalvoMarcelo EscolarJulia Pomares2011-02-22T14:54:24Z2011-07-11T14:25:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/81This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/812011-02-22T14:54:24ZThe Impact of New Technologies on Voter Confidence in Latin America: Evidence from E-voting Experiments in Argentina and ColombiaWe analyze trust in electronic voting in Latin America using data from two field experiments conducted in Argentina and Colombia. We find that voters generally exhibit high levels of confidence in e-voting, although this depends on individual characteristics such as age and education as well as on the particular type of technology used. We contrast our findings with those from industrialized democracies and show that conclusions derived from American and European e-voting experiences cannot be directly extrapolated to the Latin American context. Overall, our results suggest that e-voting could provide an attractive alternative to traditional voting procedures in the region. R. Michael AlvarezGabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.itJulia Pomares2011-02-22T14:39:24Z2011-09-27T13:25:17Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/88This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/882011-02-22T14:39:24ZMeasurement Error and Dynamic Nonlinear Models:
(Over)Estimating the Effect of HabitEstimates from non-linear models are known to be inconsistent when the dependent variable
is misclassified. Although methods have been developed to correct this inconsistency in static
non-linear models, no correction exists for dynamic non-linear models. This is a serious omission
from the literature. Since the lagged dependent variable is an explanatory variable in dynamic
models, any inconsistency that arises from misclassifcation of the dependent variable in a static
non-linear model will be magnifed when that model is made dynamic. Here, we demonstrate
this fact using the habitual voting literature and develop a parametric model to correct for this
inconsistency. We find that, on average, estimates of habitual voting are approximately twice as
large when using survey respondents' self-reports versus official records of their turnout decisions.
When we apply our corrected model to respondents' self-reports, however, the estimates of
habitual voting are significantly closer to those provided by the official records.Gabriel Katzg.katz@imtlucca.itJames Meltonjames.melton@imtlucca.it