IMT Institutional Repository: No conditions. Results ordered -Date Deposited. 2024-03-28T21:30:51ZEPrintshttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/images/logowhite.pnghttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/2021-07-19T09:36:23Z2021-07-19T09:39:43Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/4082This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/40822021-07-19T09:36:23ZPredicting Exporters with Machine LearningIn this contribution, we exploit machine learning techniques to predict out-of-sample firms'
ability to export based on the financial accounts of both exporters and non-exporters. Therefore,
we show how forecasts can be used as exporting scores, i.e., to measure the distance of
non-exporters from export status. For our purpose, we train and test various algorithms on the
financial reports of 57,021 manufacturing firms in France in 2010-2018. We find that a Bayesian
Additive Regression Tree with Missingness In Attributes (BART-MIA) performs better than
other techniques with a prediction accuracy of up to 0:90. Predictions are robust to changes in
definitions of exporters and in the presence of discontinuous exporters. Eventually, we argue
that exporting scores can be helpful for trade promotion, trade credit, and to assess firms'
competitiveness. For example, back-of-the-envelope estimates show that a representative firm
with just below-average exporting scores needs up to 44% more cash resources and up to 2:5
times more capital expenses to reach full export status.Francesca Micoccifrancesca.micocci@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2021-03-17T10:04:23Z2021-03-17T10:04:50Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/4081This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/40812021-03-17T10:04:23ZA Neural Network Ensemble Approach for GDP
ForecastingWe propose an ensemble learning methodology to forecast the future US GDP
growth release. Our approach combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with
a Dynamic Factor model accounting for time-variation in mean with a General-
ized Autoregressive Score (DFM-GAS). The analysis is based on a set of predictors
encompassing a wide range of variables measured at different frequencies. The
forecast exercise is aimed at evaluating the predictive ability of each model's com-
ponent of the ensemble by considering variations in mean, potentially caused by
recessions affecting the economy. Thus, we show how the combination of RNN and
DFM-GAS improves forecasts of the US GDP growth rate in the aftermath of the
2008-09 global financial crisis. We find that a neural network ensemble markedly
reduces the root mean squared error for the short-term forecast horizon.Luigi Longoluigi.longo@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2020-09-02T14:12:07Z2020-09-02T14:12:07Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/4078This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/40782020-09-02T14:12:07ZMeasuring the Input Rank in Global
Supply NetworksWe introduce the Input Rank as a measure of relevance of direct and indirect suppliers
in Global Value Chains. We conceive an intermediate input to be more relevant for a
downstream buyer if a decrease in that input’s productivity affects that buyer more.
In particular, in our framework, the relevance of any input depends on: i) the network
position of the supplier relative to the buyer, ii) the patterns of intermediate inputs
vs. labor intensities connecting the buyer and the supplier, iii) and the competitive
pressures along supply chains. After we compute the Input Rank from both U.S. and
world Input-Output tables, we provide useful insights on the crucial role of services
inputs as well as on the relatively higher relevance of domestic suppliers and suppliers
coming from regionally integrated partners. Finally, we test that the Input Rank is a
good predictor of vertical integration choices made by 20,489 U.S. parent companies
controlling 154,836 subsidiaries worldwide.Armando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itLoredana Fattoriniloredana.fattorini@alumni.imtlucca.itKenan Huremovickenan.huremovic@imtlucca.it2020-06-15T11:52:24Z2020-06-15T12:06:00Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/4077This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/40772020-06-15T11:52:24ZMachine Learning for Zombie Hunting.
Firms’ Failures and Financial Constraints.In this contribution, we exploit machine learning techniques to predict the risk of failure of firms.
Then, we propose an empirical definition of zombies as firms that persist in a status of high
risk, beyond the highest decile, after which we observe that the chances to transit to lower risk
are minimal. We implement a Bayesian Additive Regression Tree with Missing Incorporated in
Attributes (BART-MIA), which is specifically useful in our setting as we provide evidence that
patterns of undisclosed accounts correlate with firms’ failures. After training our algorithm
on 304,906 firms active in Italy in the period 2008-2017, we show how it outperforms proxy
models like the Z-scores and the Distance-to-Default, traditional econometric methods, and
other widely used machine learning techniques. We document that zombies are on average
21% less productive, 76% smaller, and they increased in times of financial crisis. In general,
we argue that our application helps in the design of evidence-based policies in the presence of
market failures, for example optimal bankruptcy laws. We believe our framework can help to
inform the design of support programs for highly distressed firms after the recent pandemic
crisis.Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffifalco.bargaglistoffi@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2019-12-16T16:23:45Z2019-12-16T16:23:45Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/4073This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/40732019-12-16T16:23:45ZTalents from Abroad. Foreign Managers and Productivity in the United Kingdom.In this paper, we test the contribution of foreign management on firms’ competitiveness. We use a novel dataset on the careers of 165,084 managers employed by 13,106 companies in the United Kingdom in the period 2009-2017. We find that a domestic manufacturing firm becomes on average between 9% and 12% more productive after hiring at least one foreign manager. Interestingly, productivity gains by domestic firms after recruiting foreign managers are similar in magnitude to gains after foreign acquisitions as from previous literature. Eventually,
we do not find significant gains by foreign-owned firms hiring foreign managers.
Our identification strategy combines difference-in-difference and matching techniques to challenge reverse causality. We proxy firms’ competitiveness either by total factor productivity or by technical efficiency derived from stochastic frontier analyses. Eventually, we argue that limits to the circulation of talents, as for example in case of a Brexit event, may hamper the allocation of labor productive resources.Dimitrios Exadactylosdimitrios.exadactylos@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2018-02-02T10:30:43Z2018-02-02T10:30:43Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3893This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/38932018-02-02T10:30:43ZCohesion Policy Meets Heterogeneous FirmsIn this paper, we empirically test the effects of the EU ‘cohesion policy’ on the performance of
about 500,000 European manufacturing firms after combining regional policy data at NUTS-
2 level with firm-level data. In a framework of heterogeneous firms and different absorptive
capacity of regions, we show that financing of ‘cohesion policy’ by European Regional Development
Fund (ERDF) aimed at direct investments in R&D correlates with improvement of firms’
productivity in a region. Conversely, funding designed at overall Business Support correlates
with negative productivity growth rates. In both cases, we registered an asymmetric impact
along the firms’ productivity distribution, where a stronger impact can be detected in the first
quartile, i.e. less efficient firms in a region. We finally argue that considering the heterogeneity
of firms allows a better assessment of the impact of ‘cohesion policy’ measures.Loredana Fattoriniloredana.fattorini@imtlucca.itMahdi GhodsiArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2018-01-10T14:19:02Z2018-01-10T14:19:02Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3855This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/38552018-01-10T14:19:02ZThe smile curve at the firm level: Where value is added along supply chainsIn this paper, we investigate at the firm-level where value is added along supply chains on a sample of about 2 million firms in the European Union. In line with the hypothesis of a ‘smile curve’, we detect a non-linear U-shaped relationship between the value added content of a firm and its distance from final consumption. Tasks at the early and late stages of the supply chains generate higher value added, possibly due to a higher knowledge-intensity, after controlling for firm heterogeneity. Importantly, our work shows that it is possible to exploit firm-level databases for an empirical microfoundation of value generation, which is useful for understanding the possibly unequal benefits of participating in global value chains.Armando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itDavide Del Pretedavide.delprete@imtlucca.it2017-11-29T09:28:46Z2017-11-29T09:28:46Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3842This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/38422017-11-29T09:28:46ZDoes corporate control matter to financial volatility?In our contribution we study how the ownership channel affects the stock price volatility
of listed stock markets. In particular, we study how a linkage between a parent company and
its affiliates may drive differences in stock price volatility, within and across countries. We
exploit a worldwide dataset of stock-exchange listed firms, controlling for several financial
dimensions, to assess whether business groups matter to financial volatility. The answer is
positive and does not depend on the definition of volatility used. Our results contribute to
the corporate finance literature by defining the role of multinational corporate control in
financial markets, and to the financial stability literature by assessing corporate control as
an undiscovered channel of transmission for financial shocks.Laura Gianfagnalaura.gianfagna@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2017-11-28T08:58:51Z2017-11-28T08:58:51Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3833This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/38332017-11-28T08:58:51ZThe Organization of Global Supply NetworksIn this contribution, we introduce a network approach for the organization of global
production across national borders, beyond the sequential industry-level metrics proposed
in the previous literature. First, we show and argue that several characteristics of
global production processes would be lost in the analysis when assuming that they could
be proxied as linear sequences. Hence, we propose an index that assesses the relevance
of any input for the target output, including its role as an input of inputs. Thereafter,
we exploit an own-built firm-level dataset of about 20,489 U.S. parent companies integrating
more than 154,000 affiliates worldwide. Results show that the technological
relevance of an input in a directed supply network is also a good predictor for: i) the
probability that an input industry is actually integrated within a firm boundary; ii) the
number of affiliates that are controlled by the parent company and active in that input
industry.Loredana Fattoriniloredana.fattorini@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itZhen Zhuzhen.zhu@imtlucca.it2017-11-13T15:58:37Z2017-11-13T15:58:37Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3827This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/38272017-11-13T15:58:37ZOn Economic Complexity and the Fitness of NationsComplex economic systems can often be described by a network, with nodes representing economic entities and edges their interdependencies, while network centrality is often a good indicator of importance. Recent publications have implemented a nonlinear iterative Fitness-Complexity (FC) algorithm to measure centrality in a bipartite trade network, which aims to represent the ‘Fitness’ of national economies as well as the ‘Complexity’ of the products being traded. In this paper, we discuss this methodological approach and conclude that further work is needed to identify stable and reliable measures of fitness and complexity. We provide theoretical and numerical evidence for the intrinsic instability in the nonlinear definition of the FC algorithm. We perform an in-depth evaluation of the algorithm’s rankings in two real world networks at the country level: the global trade network, and the patent network in different technological domains. In both networks, we find evidence of the instabilities predicted theoretically, and show that ‘complex’ products or patents tend often to be those that countries rarely produce, rather than those that are intrinsically more difficult to produce.Greg MorrisonSergey V. BuldyrevMichele ImbrunoOmar Alonso Doria ArrietaArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.itFabio Pammolli2017-09-04T10:27:25Z2017-09-19T14:44:51Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3768This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/37682017-09-04T10:27:25ZOrganizing the Global Value Chain: A firm-level testIn this paper, we study the organization of Global Value Chains on a sample of about 4,000 manufacturing parent companies integrating more than 90,000 affiliates in 150 countries. Assuming a technological sequence of production stages, a recent property rights framework (Antràs and Chor, 2013; Alfaro et al., 2015) predicts that vertical integration decisions are crucially based on both the position of a supplier along the chain and on the relative size of demand elasticities faced by the final-good producer and the supplier. In line with this, we find that if final demand is sufficiently elastic (inelastic), downstream parents, i.e. final-good producers, integrate production stages that are more proximate to (far from) final demand. However, this result is not valid in the case of midstream parents, i.e. producers of intermediate inputs that can integrate either backward or forward along the chain. We document that these companies are at least as common as are downstream parents, but the existing theory neglects them. In these cases, we find that demand elasticities do not play a significant role in integration choices. Interestingly, both midstream and downstream parents tend to integrate affiliates that are more proximate in segments of a supply chain, probably due to technological complementarities in adjacent industries.Davide Del Pretedavide.delprete@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2017-09-04T09:15:17Z2017-09-04T09:20:20Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3767This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/37672017-09-04T09:15:17ZGlobal ownership and corporate control networksIn this contribution, at first, we introduce a basic network framework to study pyramidal structures and wedges between ownership and control of companies. Then, we apply it to a dataset of
53.5 million of companies operating in 208 countries. Among others, we detect a strong concentra-
tion of corporate power, as less than 1% of parent companies collect more than 100 subsidiaries, but
they are responsible for more than 50% of global sales. Therefore, we show that the role of indirect
control, i.e., through middlemen subsidiaries, is relevant in 15% of domestic and 54% of foreign
subsidiaries. Among foreign companies, cases emerge of blurring nationality, when control paths
cross more than one national border, in the presence of multiple passports (19.1%), indirectly for-
eign (24.5%), and round-tripping subsidiaries (1.33%). Finally, we relate indirect control strategies
to country indicators of the institutional environment. We find that pyramidal structures arise less
likely in the presence of good financial and contractual institutions in the parent's country, as these
foster more transparent forms of corporate governance. Instead, parent companies choose indirect
control through countries of subsidiaries that have better financial institutions, possibly because it
is easier to coordinate decisions from remote. Finally, we find that offshore financial centers are
preferred jurisdictions for middlemen subsidiaries, probably due to a lower taxation and a lack of
financial disclosure.Armando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itGreg MorrisonFabio Pammolli2017-03-21T10:30:16Z2017-04-12T14:47:50Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/3663This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/36632017-03-21T10:30:16ZThe “Smile Curve”: where Value is Added along
Supply ChainsIn this paper we analyze where value is added along supply chains on a sample of more than 2
million of firms in the European Union. We detect a non-linear U-shaped relationship between the
value added generated by firms and their position on a productive sequence, for which tasks at the
top and at the bottom show higher value added. Our findings are in line with previous hypotheses
on the existence of a so-called 'smile curve', resumed by both business and economic studies and
discussed at length in international fora. Our results are robust to different empirical strategies for
flexible functional forms. As far as we know, ours is the first firm-level successful attempt to test
for value generation along supply chains. Further, we find empirical support for a phenomenon of
domestic retention of value added by MNEs, which may prefer keeping at home the tasks at higher
potential to safeguard present and future competitive advantages. By country, intermediate stages
of production are at higher value when performed by foreign as liates, whereas domestic producers
retain higher value at the very top and at the very bottom of the supply chain, organized either
as independent suppliers or as domestic affiliates. Although an economic theory is still missing
for explaining how and why value generation is non-linear along a typical technological sequence,
here we argue that a microfoundation with firm-level data is useful for understanding the growth
potential of countries' specialization patterns along different segments of supply chains.Armando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itDavide Del Pretedavide.delprete@imtlucca.it2016-01-12T14:42:35Z2016-01-12T14:42:35Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2981This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/29812016-01-12T14:42:35ZAccess to Medicines and European Market IntegrationIn this paper we document a process of price convergence in the European market for pharmaceuticals and relate it to access to innovative medicines in individual countries. The EU is a peculiar case study, where free circulation of goods exists, but pricing policies are designed and implemented by Member States. Thanks to a unique census database on product sales and launches
for fifteen EU countries, we detect a process of price convergence, both in nominal and in real
terms. Therefore, we find that a faster rate of price convergence and a lower income per capita are
associated with stronger delays in launches of new medicines. Moreover, country delays tend to
be higher for innovative and first in class chemical compounds. Our results suggest that inefficiencies arise from drugs regulation, when countries widely differ in income per capita, public finance
sustainability conditions, and regulatory frameworks. Policies of external reference pricing tend to
exacerbate welfare losses. A policy of differential pricing is suggested, in order to take into account
both therapeutic value and willingness to pay.Fabio Pammollif.pammolli@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2015-10-09T12:40:26Z2015-10-09T12:46:04Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2769This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/27692015-10-09T12:40:26ZAscesa e declino dei tradizionali driver dello sviluppo: nuovi scenari futuriNel quadro del suo costante impegno al tema della produzione, Aspen Institute Italia ha realizzato la
ricerca “Ascesa e declino dei tradizionali driver dello sviluppo: nuovi scenari futuri”. Una caratteristica
originale di questo lavoro è il contributo che gli associati ad Aspen Institute Italia più esposti alle sfide
imprenditoriali e produttive hanno fornito, attraverso un articolato questionario, con valutazioni
pragmatiche e proposte a servizio del dibattito che l’Italia ha in corso1. Obiettivo della ricerca è
individuare nuove fonti della crescita nel medio e lungo periodo, con particolare attenzione alle ricadute
prevedibili sul futuro dell’economia italiana. La Redazione Scientifica dello studio è stata condotta da Fabio
Pammolli con la collaborazione di Armando Rungi, indirizzata da uno Steering Committee costituito da
Giuliano Amato, Marco Fortis, Alberto Quadrio Curzio e Paolo Savona.
In un contesto di crescente integrazione dei mercati a livello internazionale è indispensabile
comprendere quali sono le coordinate da seguire per continuare su un sentiero di sviluppo e di crescita
per il Paese. Quali attività produttive hanno maggior potenziale? Che tipo di innovazione è necessaria
per fronteggiare la crescente competizione internazionale? Esistono fasi delle filiere industriali su cui
l’Italia è già ben posizionata? E quali sono le fasi sulle quali è più necessario investire? In che modo il
sistema istituzionale favorisce od ostacola l’emergere delle eccellenze italiane? Queste sono solo alcune
delle domande che sono state poste agli associati ad Aspen Institute Italia, in quanto d’interesse per fare
il punto sugli scenari attuali e futuri, sulla base dei quali valutare l’efficacia di nuovi o tradizionali driver
di sviluppo.
Senza nessuna pretesa di coprire le ampie problematiche di economia interna e internazionale, nel
dettaglio che in altre sedi esse meritano, si ritiene di aver colto alcuni punti essenziali che vale la pena
segnalare. A corredo delle risposte fornite dal questionario, si analizzano alcune evidenze empiriche utili
per un commento ragionato dei diversi argomenti affrontati.Fabio Pammollif.pammolli@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2015-09-18T10:21:59Z2015-09-18T10:21:59Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2751This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/27512015-09-18T10:21:59ZTransportation services and global value chainsJan HagemejerArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2015-09-18T10:18:27Z2015-09-18T10:18:27Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2750This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/27502015-09-18T10:18:27ZThe European transport system : major challengesJan MichalekMahdi GhodsiArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2015-09-18T07:36:38Z2015-09-18T07:36:38Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2749This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/27492015-09-18T07:36:38ZGlobal value networksCarlo AltomonteItalo ColantoneArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itTommaso Sonno2015-05-11T14:29:23Z2017-07-19T08:26:51Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2672This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/26722015-05-11T14:29:23ZOrganizing the Global Value Chain: a firm-level testIn this paper we study the organization of Global Value Chains on a sample of about 4,000 manufacturing parent
companies operating more than 90,000 affiliates on a global scale, which chose to integrate at least once in the
period 2004–2012. Assuming a technological sequence of production stages, a recent property rights framework
(Antràs and Chor, 2013; Alfaro et al., 2015) predicts that a choice of vertical integration is crucially based on both
the position of a supplier along the chain and on the relative size of demand elasticities faced by the final producer
and the supplier. We positively test whether, if final demand is sufficiently elastic (inelastic), producers of final
goods integrate production stages that are more proximate to (far from) the consumers. However, this is not valid
for cases of midstream parents, i.e. for producers of intermediate inputs that can integrate either backward or forward
along the chain. We document that midstream are at least as common as are downstream parent companies but that
existing theory neglects them. In these cases, we find that demand elasticities do not play a significant role in
integration choices. Interestingly, both midstream and downstream parents tend to integrate affiliates that are more
proximate in segments of a supply chain. Our findings point to a role for technological determinants that may be as
important as are contracting frictions in organizing Global Value Chains.Davide Del Pretedavide.delprete@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2014-11-17T11:38:14Z2014-11-17T11:38:14Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2370This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/23702014-11-17T11:38:14ZReputation and impact in academic careersReputation is an important social construct in science, which enables informed quality assessments of both publications and careers of scientists in the absence of complete systemic information. However, the relation between reputation and career growth of an individual remains poorly understood, despite recent proliferation of quantitative research evaluation methods. Here, we develop an original framework for measuring how a publication’s citation rate Δc depends on the reputation of its central author i, in addition to its net citation count c. To estimate the strength of the reputation effect, we perform a longitudinal analysis on the careers of 450 highly cited scientists, using the total citations Ci of each scientist as his/her reputation measure. We find a citation crossover c×, which distinguishes the strength of the reputation effect. For publications with c < c×, the author’s reputation is found to dominate the annual citation rate. Hence, a new publication may gain a significant early advantage corresponding to roughly a 66% increase in the citation rate for each tenfold increase in Ci. However, the reputation effect becomes negligible for highly cited publications meaning that, for c ≥ c×, the citation rate measures scientific impact more transparently. In addition, we have developed a stochastic reputation model, which is found to reproduce numerous statistical observations for real careers, thus providing insight into the microscopic mechanisms underlying cumulative advantage in science. Alexander M. Petersenalexander.petersen@imtlucca.itSanto FortunatoRaj K. PanKimmo KaskiOrion Pennerorion.penner@imtlucca.itArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.itH. Eugene StanleyFabio Pammollif.pammolli@imtlucca.it2014-05-12T09:45:19Z2014-05-12T09:46:27Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2194This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/21942014-05-12T09:45:19ZGlobal supply chains and international competitivenessThe emergence of global supply chains, that is the organization of production processes in factories that are part of a network of suppliers located in different countries and specialized in specific production phases, brings about a number of major changes in the way the global economy works and interacts. To explore more in detail this phenomenon from a microeconomic perspective, in this paper we provide evidence on Business Groups, that is network-like forms of hierarchical organization between legally autonomous firms spanning both within and across national borders.
Exploiting a unique dataset of 270,474 headquarters controlling more than 1,500,000 (domestic and foreign) affiliates in all countries worldwide, we find that business groups account for a significant part of value-added generation in both developed and developing countries, with a prevalence in the latter. In order to characterize their boundaries, we introduce an entropy-like metric able to summarize the hierarchical complexity of a group and its trade-off between exploitation of knowledge as an input across the hierarchy and the associated communication costs.
When relating these metrics to the performance of affiliates across business groups, we find a robust (albeit non-linear) positive relationship between a group’s hierarchical complexity and productivity which dominates the already known correlation between vertical integration and productivity. Results are in line with the theoretical framework of knowledge-based hierarchies developed by the literature, in which intangible assets are a complementary input in the production processes.Carlo AltomonteArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-06T10:07:56Z2013-11-06T10:07:56Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1868This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18682013-11-06T10:07:56ZBusiness Groups as Hierarchies of Firms: Determinants of Vertical Integration and PerformanceWe explore the nature of Business Groups, that is network-like forms of hierarchical organization between legally autonomous firms spanning both within and across national borders. Exploiting a unique dataset of 270,474 headquarters controlling more than 1,500,000 (domestic and foreign) affiliates in all countries worldwide, we find that business groups account for a significant part of value-added generation in both developed and developing countries, with a prevalence in the latter. In order to characterize their boundaries, we distinguish between an affiliate vs. a group-level index of vertical integration, as well as an entropy-like metric able to summarize the hierarchical complexity of a group and its trade-off between exploitation of knowledge as an input across the hierarchy and the associated communication costs. We relate these metrics to host country institutional characteristics, as well as to the performance of affiliates across business groups. Conditional on institutional quality, a negative correlation exists between vertical integration and organizational complexity in defining the boundaries of business groups. We also find a robust (albeit non-linear) positive relationship between a group's organizational complexity and productivity which dominates the already known correlation between vertical integration and productivity. Results are in line with the theoretical framework of knowledge-based hierarchies developed by the literature, in which intangible assets are a complementary input in the production processes.
Carlo AltomonteArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-06T09:52:12Z2014-01-28T15:55:38Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1867This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18672013-11-06T09:52:12ZGlobal value chains during the Great Trade collapse: a bullwhip effectCarlo AltomonteFilippo Di MauroGianmarco OttavianoArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-05T15:47:57Z2014-05-12T09:50:04Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1866This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18662013-11-05T15:47:57ZGlobal value chains during the great trade collapse: a bullwhip effect?This paper analyzes the performance of global value chains during the trade collapse. To do so, it exploits a unique transaction-level dataset on French firms containing information on cross-border monthly transactions matched with data on worldwide intrafirm linkages as defined by property rights (multinational business groups, hierarchies of firms). This newly assembled dataset allows us to distinguish firm-level transactions among two alternative organizational modes of global value chains: internalization of activities (intragroup trade/trade among related parties) or establishment of supply contracts (arm's length trade/trade among unrelated parties). After an overall assessment of the role of global value chains during the trade collapse, we document that intra-group trade in intermediates was characterized by a faster drop followed by a faster recovery than arm's length trade. Amplified fluctuations in terms of trade elasticities by value chains have been referred to as the "bullwhip effect" and have been attributed to the adjustment of inventories within supply chains. In this paper we first confirm the existence of such an effect due to trade in intermediates, and we underline the role that different organizational modes can play in driving this adjustmentCarlo AltomonteFilippo Di MauroGianmarco OttavianoArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itVIncent Vicard2013-11-05T15:28:28Z2014-05-12T07:33:31Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1865This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18652013-11-05T15:28:28ZImport Penetration, Intermediate Inputs and Productivity: Evidence from Italian FirmsWe test the impact of import penetration on the productivity of a sample of roughly 35,000 Italian manufacturing firms operating in the period 1996-2003, considering the impact on productivity of both import penetration in the same industry and import penetration in the up-stream industries. We also distinguish the source country of imports. We find that: 1) import penetration has a positive effect on productivity. 2) The effects are much larger for import penetration in up-stream industries than for import penetration in the same industry. 3) Imports from the other European countries and the BRICS have more significant impact on the productivity of Italian firms than imports from the US.Carlo AltomonteAlessandro BarattieriArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-05T15:14:26Z2013-11-05T15:14:26Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1864This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18642013-11-05T15:14:26ZAssessing the Competitive Behaviour of Firms in the Single Market: A Micro-based ApproachThis Report analyses and compares a number of indicators related to the evolution of the competitive behaviour of firms in the Single Market, from 1999 to 2007, in a selected number of both manufacturing and services industries and eight EU countries: Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and Sweden. A novelty of the approach is that the analysis is derived from firm-level observable data, which allow to grasp not only information on the average changes taking place in each industry and across countries, but also the distribution and sources of these changes in terms of individual firms' pricing behaviour and market shares, an information which is impossible to gather in detail from aggregate, traditional sector-level measuresCarlo AltomonteMarcella NicoliniArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itLaura Ogliari2013-11-05T14:36:25Z2013-11-05T14:36:25Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1862This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18622013-11-05T14:36:25ZThe ‘Invisible Role’ of Business Groups is made EvidentBusiness Groups collect and coordinate legally autonomous firms spanning both within and across national borders . They represent a lion's share of value added generation on a world scale, and yet they received little attention in economics literature, probably due to a lack of detailed data. In Altomonte and Rungi (2013) we exploited a unique own-built dataset of proprietary linkages to find that: a) Business Groups are present in both developing and developed countries, adapting their organization according to the peculiarities of the hosting environment; b) within Business Groups, choices of integration of production activities are not independent from choices of management coordination; c) eventually, choices of management coordination reveal to be important drivers of productivity and dominate on choices of vertical integration. More in general, here we argue, data are telling us that the adoption of different organizational structures at the firm level can in part explain the endurance of productivity gaps across industries and countries and the phenomenon of Business Groups becomes even more important after the emergence of Global Value Chains.Armando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-05T14:18:55Z2013-11-05T14:18:55Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1861This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18612013-11-05T14:18:55ZLe catene globali del valore dei gruppi multinazionali in ItaliaArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-05T13:55:29Z2013-11-05T15:02:17Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1860This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18602013-11-05T13:55:29ZMal d’Afrique: Abundance of Natural Resources and Growth FailureArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itSilvia Merler2013-11-05T13:46:17Z2013-11-05T13:46:17Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1859This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18592013-11-05T13:46:17ZLe start-up come fenomeno regionaleArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-05T13:25:52Z2013-11-05T15:01:49Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1858This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18582013-11-05T13:25:52ZFrom Export Dependency to Dynamic Comparative AdvantagesIntroduction: A modern race to resources is underway to assure that present and future generations can benefit from the availability of a stock necessary for the maintenance of an acceptable level of economic development.
In this brief chapter we collect some economic literature that could be of help in understanding the conflict of interest between export and import dependent countries, which are often also polarized between developing and developed countries. We don’t pretend to be exhaustive of all the literature that in the last decades has coped with the issues. Instead we suggest only a few tools to interpret an ever-changing reality that we consider useful for future progress of our research.
Given the geographical dispersion of natural resources, we have countries that specializes in trade of natural resources and countries that exchange manufacturing and services for them. A better knowledge of the reciprocal weaknesses of these two groups of countries can avoid the emergence of future conflicts. In particular we have adopted the side of export dependent countries, that are often also underdeveloped, in order to understand the problems that can hinder a worldwide stable and secure supply of natural resourcesArmando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.it2013-11-05T12:08:17Z2013-11-07T13:32:52Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1857This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/18572013-11-05T12:08:17ZAbbondanza di risorse naturali e mancate opportunità di sviluppoIn the worldwide race to resources to ensure an acceptable level of economic development for present and future generations, the African continent assumes a central role for its abundant natural capital. Notwithstanding the renewed interest of advanced economies, and more recently of the emerging Asian economies, Africa is a continent rich in resources but poorly integrated within the new global economic system. Armando Rungiarmando.rungi@imtlucca.itSilvia Merler