IMT Institutional Repository: No conditions. Results ordered -Date Deposited. 2024-03-29T00:37:01ZEPrintshttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/images/logowhite.pnghttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/2014-11-11T14:34:06Z2015-03-25T09:16:39Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2367This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/23672014-11-11T14:34:06ZTemperature and precipitation in Northeast China during the last 150 years: relationship to large-scale climatic variability The analysis of two historical time series of temperature and precipitation in Northeast China, spanning, respectively, 1870–2004 and 1841–2004, performed by continuous wavelet transform and other classical and advanced spectral methods, is presented here. Both variables show a particular trend and oscillations of about 85, 60, 35 and 20 years that are highly significant, with a phase opposition at the centennial scale and at the 20-year scale. The analysis of the four temperature series relative to single seasons shows that the 20-year cycle is typical of the summer monsoon season, while the 35-year cycle is most evident in winter. The cycles of ~ 60 years and longer are present in all seasons. The centennial variation of temperature and precipitation describes well the 1970–1980 transition between a period of relatively strong East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), corresponding to high precipitation and relatively cool temperatures in Northeast China, and a conditions of weak EASM (low precipitation and warm temperatures). The connection of the detected local variations with large-scale climatic variability is deduced from the comparison with different climatic records (Northern Hemisphere temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indexes).
Silvia AlessioCarla TariccoSara RubinettiGianna Vivaldogianna.vivaldo@imtlucca.itSalvatore Mancuso2014-09-01T12:17:22Z2014-09-01T13:08:11Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2271This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/22712014-09-01T12:17:22ZThe rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approachTheory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995–2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism.Zhen Zhuzhen.zhu@imtlucca.itFederica CerinaAlessandro Chessaalessandro.chessa@imtlucca.itGuido Caldarelliguido.caldarelli@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.it2014-07-28T13:24:16Z2015-01-29T09:30:26Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2264This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/22642014-07-28T13:24:16ZAspettando la “primavera della seta” in Asia CentraleLa primavera araba è un fenomeno vasto, imprevisto e tuttora incompreso: a tre anni dallo scoppio delle prime proteste in Nord Africa sono state elaborate una serie di teorie – spesso in contraddizione tra loro e smentite dall’evoluzione degli eventi – per cercare di spiegare un evento che ha sconvolto il panorama geopolitico del Medio Oriente e del Nord Africa (da ora in poi inteso con la sigla Mena1), ma limitandosi ai confini culturali arabi. La primavera araba ci ha dimostrato di non essere un fenomeno generalizzabile e – per il momento – teorizzabile. La sua natura ‘polimorfa’ ha implicato diverse evoluzioni degli eventi a seconda del contesto, sfociando, in alcuni casi, in rovesciamenti di regimi (Tunisia, Egitto e Yemen) o degenerando in guerre civili (Libia e Siria); altre volte è stata riassorbita portando a ricambi di governo (Marocco, Giordania, Kuwait e Oman), grandi proteste popolari (Iraq e Algeria) e una serie di manifestazioni di piazza in tutto il Nord Africa e Medio Oriente man mano attenuate. Sulla scia teorica di Samuel Huntington, alcuni commentatori auspicavano che la primavera araba coincidesse con la tanto attesa ‘quarta ondata’ di democratizzazione del mondo islamico; ma ciò non è stato: queste teorie che inquadravano il fenomeno come un generale processo di democratizzazione regionale, sono state sconfessate dalle ultime controtendenze che ci farebbero immaginare un epilogo opposto verso la non-democrazia.Riccardo M. Cucciollariccardo.cucciolla@imtlucca.it2014-04-29T08:36:57Z2014-04-29T08:36:57Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2192This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/21922014-04-29T08:36:57ZThe rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approachTheory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences and to economics and
finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the
evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between
community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover,
simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra- communities. Zhen Zhuzhen.zhu@imtlucca.itFederica CerinaAlessandro Chessaalessandro.chessa@imtlucca.itGuido Caldarelliguido.caldarelli@imtlucca.itMassimo Riccabonimassimo.riccaboni@imtlucca.it2013-07-09T14:36:19Z2013-07-09T14:36:19Zhttp://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/1635This item is in the repository with the URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/16352013-07-09T14:36:19ZA Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress PeriodsThe purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.Eleftherios Giovaniseleftherios.giovanis@imtlucca.it