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Fluctuation Theorems for Synchronization of Interacting Polya's urns

Crimaldi, Irene and Dai Pra, Paolo and Minelli, Ida G. Fluctuation Theorems for Synchronization of Interacting Polya's urns. Technical Report (Submitted)

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We consider a model of N two-colors urns in which the reinforcement of each urn depends also on the content of all the other urns. This interaction is of mean-field type and it is tuned by a parameter \alpha in [0,1]; in particular, for \alpha=0 the N urns behave as N independent Polya's urns. For \alpha>0 urns synchronize, in the sense that the fraction of balls of a given color converges a.s. to the same (random) limit in all urns. In this paper we study fluctuations around this synchronized regime. The scaling of these fluctuations depends on the parameter \alpha. In particular, the standard scaling t^{-1/2} appears only for \alpha>1/2. For \alpha\geq 1/2 we also determine the limit distribution of the rescaled fluctuations. We use the notion of stable convergence, which is stronger than convergence in distribution.

Item Type: Working Paper (Technical Report)
Additional Information: preprint on ArXiv (1407.5043), submitted
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fluctuation theorem, Interacting system, Stable convergence, Synchronization, Urn model
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Research Area: Economics and Institutional Change
Depositing User: Irene Crimaldi
Date Deposited: 23 Jul 2014 09:02
Last Modified: 23 Jul 2014 09:02
URI: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/2262

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